OpenAI: Unprecedented Scale Losses and Market Share Decline

In the technology industry, serious debates are raging around the financial sustainability of OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT and the generative model Sora. A recent leak of internal documents published by The Information paints a grim picture: the company expects losses of 14 billion dollars in 2026, which is three times the 2025 figure. Cumulative losses over the period from 2023 to 2028 could amount to astronomical 44 billion dollars. Despite ambitious plans to reach profitability of 14 billion dollars with revenue of 100 billion in 2029, analysts are expressing serious concerns.

Deutsche Bank presented an even more pessimistic forecast, estimating OpenAI's negative free cash flow at a staggering 143 billion dollars in the period from 2024 to 2029. Bank analysts emphasize the unprecedented nature of the situation: "No startup in history has operated at losses of this magnitude. We are on completely uncharted territory." These figures raise questions about the viability of OpenAI's business model and its ability to compete with other players in the artificial intelligence market.

A separate concern is raised by the economics of Sora, a generative model capable of creating videos from text descriptions. According to Forbes estimates, generating a single 10-second video costs 1.30 dollars. At current usage volumes, this amounts to 15 million dollars per day, or 5.4 billion dollars per year. Sora's head, Bill Pebbles, publicly acknowledged that "the economics right now are absolutely unsustainable." This raises doubts about Sora's monetization prospects and its long-term competitiveness.

The situation is exacerbated by ChatGPT's declining market share. Over the past year, ChatGPT's share has fallen from 87% to 68%, while Google Gemini has significantly strengthened its position, increasing its share from 5.4% to 18.2%. In the corporate segment, the situation for OpenAI is even more alarming: the company has lost half the market (from 50% in 2023 to 27% at present), ceding leadership to Claude from Anthropic, which holds 32% of the market.

According to George Noble, former manager of Fidelity, OpenAI is experiencing a crisis. "OpenAI is falling apart before our eyes in real time," said Noble. "I have observed company collapses for decades. Here are all the warning signs." These words, spoken by an experienced investor, add weight to concerns about OpenAI's future.

Despite all difficulties, OpenAI continues to actively develop new technologies and attract talented specialists. The company possesses significant technological advantages and potential for creating breakthrough innovations. However, to ensure its long-term sustainability, OpenAI needs to find effective ways to monetize its products, optimize costs, and strengthen its market position.

OpenAI's future remains uncertain. Will the company be able to overcome financial difficulties and maintain leadership in the field of artificial intelligence? Time will tell. One thing can be said for certain: the situation around OpenAI is a vivid example of how complex and unpredictable the path to success can be in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence industry.