Laptop Makers Reconsider Exit from China: Share Outside PRC Set to Fall to 21%

Laptop manufacturers are reconsidering their strategy of moving production out of China and are weighing a return to the ecosystem hub as soaring component prices squeeze profitability. That's according to a report from Taiwanese analytics firm TrendForce, published on Thursday.

Between 2023 and 2025, major laptop makers aggressively expanded capacity outside mainland China — primarily as a hedge against trade tariffs and geopolitical friction. But the current spike in semiconductor and electronic component prices is flipping the equation: manufacturing in China is once again becoming the most cost-effective option.

Forecast: Production Outside China Set to Decline

TrendForce forecasts a decline in the share of global laptop production outside mainland China, given current conditions:

• In 2026, the share will fall to 21% (down from roughly 24% in 2025) • In 2027, it will drop below 20%

This signals a strategic inversion: where companies once sought alternatives to the Chinese ecosystem, they are now rethinking that choice in light of changed economic conditions.

Rebalancing the Equation: Diversification vs. Efficiency

TrendForce's report states: "This indicates that brands are reevaluating the balance between supply chain diversification and manufacturing efficiency as political and cost conditions evolve."

The core conflict is plain to see: companies need protection against single-country dependency and trade wars, but high component prices make manufacturing in alternative regions economically unprofitable. In Thailand, Vietnam, and India, electronics and logistics costs now exceed the cost of large-scale production in China, where the bulk of the industry and supplier networks are concentrated.

Context: Why China Is Competitive Again

The PC industry is bracing for a slowdown in consumer demand driven by high component prices. Against that backdrop, manufacturers are looking for any way to cut costs. Returning to China, where the contractor and supplier ecosystem has reached peak maturity, is becoming the logical move.

In recent years, major manufacturers — Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, and others — invested in production in Vietnam, Thailand, and India. But as semiconductor prices rose, local production became more expensive than concentrated manufacturing in China. Brands now acknowledge that costly diversification is currently less advantageous than cutting costs through China's historical production base.